Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

307
FXUS62 KILM 052340
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
740 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures above normal will continue through Saturday. A
cold front will bring increased rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures on Sunday. Cooler weather arrives next week with
periods of unsettled weather possible, especially along the
coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows an old frontal boundary well
offshore of the area, while the Bermuda high continues to move
moisture into the area. Dewpoints have gradually come up across
the area, thanks to the southeasterly flow. This will aid in
slightly warmer low temperatures tonight, generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Calm winds tonight may lead to some patchy
fog before sunrise Saturday morning.

Saturday, a cold front will start to make its way through
Appalachia, not making it to the coast just yet. Warm onshore
flow will continue to pump in more moisture, with dewpoints
ramping up into the 70s by late in the afternoon. Pre-frontal
warming allows highs to shoot up in the lower 90s inland, upper
80s at the coast. Most of our stations haven`t recorded the 90s
since mid-late August, so it looks like that streak will come to
an end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As a mid-level shortwave trough ejects from Lake Erie
northeastward along the international border over Saturday
night, a surface cold front will push southeastward through the
region. Although some light shower activity may accompany this
front, it will be slowing down and weakening as it moves
through, with a cooler and drier air mass lagging behind it.
Thus, a light northerly wind can be expected on Sunday morning,
but the air mass won`t feel much different as dew points should
remain in the upper 60s to low 70s with morning lows in the same
range. With the front stalled near the coast and no push of
cooler or drier air arriving until Sunday night, pwats around
1.8- 2" and daytime heating should be able to produce weak to
moderate instability, with the front and/or the sea breeze
helping to focus surface convergence near the coast. Although
guidance differs in the coverage of showers and storms, at least
isolated activity should develop during the afternoon, with
heavy thunderstorms featuring gusty winds possible. Some of the
high-res guidance suggests a narrow zone of scattered storms
developing just inland of the coast, where the sea breeze/front
ends up drifting due to daytime heating, but other lower-res
guidance tools keep most of the activity offshore, so PoPs may
need to be raised or lowered in future updates. Daytime highs
will depend on the extent of clouds and timing of any rain, but
mid-upper 80s are forecast.

Another shortwave trough pivoting through the Midwest during
the day on Sunday will sharpen up as it crosses through New
England during the night. This will bring a robust push of
cooler and drier air which will shove the cold front offshore,
but as the shortwave lifts away, the front will stall somewhere
off the coast by late in the night. However, cooler and drier
air should arrive with dew points expected to dip into the 50s
near and west of I-95 and into the low- mid 60s east of I-95 to
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With the stalled front just offshore, an unusual pattern
similar to what was seen in the first two weeks of August will
ensue. A robust high pressure ridge will wedge down the east
side of the Appalachians, resulting in breezy northeast winds,
especially as the pressure gradient tightens between the stalled
front and the high. In addition, extensive cloud cover and
occasional rain affecting the coast appear likely, with rain
chances decreasing away from the coast. Temps will follow a
muted diurnal curve amidst this pattern, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s and lows in the low-mid 60s.

By Thursday, another mid-level trough may be arriving which
would push the front further away as another cold front dives
southward. However, guidance depictions vary greatly at this far
time range, so this carries very low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Currently VFR, with an isolated thunderstorm in Marion county
continuing to weaken. Clear skies and calm winds tonight.
Moisture return will aid in high RHs at the surface and
increase fog chances through Saturday morning. Dry air is still
present just above the surface, so thick fog development will be
tough. Best chance for IFR vsbys will be at KILM
overnight/Saturday morning, where moisture is a little better.
Confidence is lower for inland terminals, and have only included
a couple of hours of MVFR fog near dawn. VFR Saturday, after any
fog dissipates, with mostly clear skies and light S winds (SE
sea breeze in the afternoon).

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR Saturday afternoon and night,
albeit there could be fog issues again. Rain chances return on
Sunday ahead of a cold front. A wedge of high pressure could
bring periodic restrictions early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Southeasterly winds at 5-10 kts become more
light and variable tonight, returning right back to where it was
by Saturday afternoon. Seas hold steady at 1-2 ft.

Saturday night through Tuesday... Generally weak southerly
winds (sustained 10 kts or less) early on Saturday night will
veer to southwesterly, then briefly shift to northwesterly as a
cold front pushes into the waters on Sunday morning. However,
this front is expected to stall and drift back to nearshore or
onshore with the sea breeze on Sunday, bringing winds back to
easterly or southeasterly during the day. During Sunday night,
this front will be shoved offshore with north to northeast winds
taking over in its wake. The front will stall over the waters
and result in a tightening pressure gradient as high pressure
builds down from the north, resulting in a period of breezy
northeast winds which may reach SCA criteria from Monday through
Tuesday.

Benign seas around 1-3 ft through Sunday will increase from
Sunday night through Tuesday in tandem with the increasing
winds. At this time, 6+ ft seas are forecast to enter into the
coastal water zones during the afternoon on Monday and peak on
Tuesday with heights of 6- 7 ft (possibly up to 8 ft near the
20nmi boundary offshore of Cape Fear). Given how far out this
is, adjustments to timing and peak winds/wave heights are
likely, but a period of SCA conditions is something to monitor
closely for the first half of next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...IGB/ABW