Wilmington, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

181
FXUS62 KILM 061041
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
641 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a one day break from widespread thunderstorm activity
today, the weather will turn quite unsettled for atleast the
next several days if not more. This the result of a series of
upper level disturbances combined with sfc boundaries moving
across the area while using the hot and humid conditions to
their advantage.

&&

.UPDATE...
Some minor tweaks made to cloudiness for today, otherwise all
remains on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure should be just to our NE with westerly flow
around it drying out inland but with some low level moisture
lingering at the coast. Isolated showers with a possible rumble
of thunder could pop up at the coast and along the sea breeze
this afternoon. The main issue for the period will be how long
clouds hold on during the day as they should start clearing out
late this afternoon from SW to NE. How long they stick around
will impact high temperatures for SE NC. NE SC should reach near
90 away from the coast but the lingering clouds should may SE
NC fall shy of this, in the mid to upper 80s. Should clouds
clear out quickly, highs will rise closer to 90. Increasing mid
to high level clouds overnight should warm lows a bit, with low
temps in the lower 70s with extensive radiational cooling not
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper s/w trof within westerly flow aloft to pass just north of
the FA early Sat. Will see clouds and possible morning isolated
convection with a sfc trof along the I-95 corridor. The next
embedded upper s/w trof to affect the FA Sat aftn and evening.
POPs will climb to high chance to likely as the s/w trof
interacts with a sfc boundary dropping to the FA. SPC has the
entire ILM CWA within a SLGT Risk (2 of 5) for severe tstorms
with kinematic/dynamic reasoning in their discussion. Looking
at damaging wind gusts and possibly hail the primary severe
threats. Sat max temps will break into the 90-95 degree range
away from the beaches with a healthy sea breeze likely with an
inland progression limited given the decent westerly flow aloft.
Min temps Sat night, widespread 70s.

Sun thru Sun night, longwave amplified upper trof to become
better organized as it sets up shop across the eastern 1/2 to
1/3rd of the U.S. Embedded s/w trofs will pivot around/thru the
upper trof, pushing across the FA Sun aftn and night. 90 degree
readings for Sun max temps look aok once again. Sfc boundary to
drop down and replace the 1 across portions of the FA. POPs
will be slightly hier Sun over Sat given the more direct impacts
from the embedded s/w trofs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Under the influence of the Eastern U.S. amplified longwave
upper trof Mon thru Wed with embedded s/w trofs pivoting thru
it. Sfc boundaries to persist across portions of the FA and with
ample moisture and June insolation thrown into the mix, look for
diurnal scattered to numerous shower/thunderstorm activity each
day. Convection activity may persist well into the night
provided dynamics from any of these embedded s/w trofs pushing
across the FA. The upper longwave trof to finally progress
downstream away from the FA during the latter half of the week.
This will enable a cold front to push across and possibly south
of the FA. If this occurs, look for a drying out period as an
upper ridge axis tries to become established across the SE
States. Thu/Fri POPs will drop back to isolated to low chance.
Temps the 1st half of the work-week to run at or slightly above
climo, the end week will end with at or just below normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR should clear out within the next several hours. The
coastal terminals have cleared out but there`s low clouds
behind this that should make it there within the TAF period
starting. After clearing there will be some BKN to SCT mid-level
clouds that will linger through the afternoon, and some
isolated showers and storms possible. There will be a weak sea
breeze at the coast with winds going from W to S. VFR should
return with increasing high clouds tonight, light SW winds
becoming predominant.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions possible in
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday, along
with a chance of overnight/morning fog and stratus Saturday
night and Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...West winds will become SW in the afternoon
with the sea breeze, speeds 10-15 kts through tonight. Seas
will be largely 3 ft with a 3 ft SW swell at 5-6 seconds and a
1-2 ft E swell at 8-9 seconds. Some isolated showers and storms
are possible in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday through Tuesday...Southwest winds to dominate the
extended wind forecast. Persistent Sfc trof inland and well
offshore centered high pressure off the SE States Coast will be
the mainstays Sat into Wed. Sfc boundaries dropping down from
the NW-N will likely remain just north of the local waters this
period. The sfc pg will yield wind speeds in the 10-15 kt or
around 15 kt range with g20+ kt possible especially Sat aftn and
night. The daily sea breeze will affect the waters nearshore,
within 10 nm of the coast, with winds temporarily becoming
southerly in direction and could produce 25 kt wind gusts
depending on the strength of the sea breeze3 which should be
strongest Sat. Convection to be more common Sat thru Tue,
abating-some by Wed. Seas generally in the 2 to 4 ft range with
a few days in the 3 to 5 ft range, especially the waters Cape
Fear to Murrells inlet with the better Southwesterly fetch.
Short period, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves to
dominate. With an underlying small SE-SSE 8+ second period swell
remaining present and accounted for.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/LEW